Holland Crew Football

"I may not be able to punt very well any more, but as a kicker, I am a golden god!"

The series-ending, last-second win over Texas A&M on Thanksgiving was incredible. It brought with it some much needed celebration for Longhorn players, coaches and fans who’ve dealt with two roller coaster seasons that have seen more downs than ups.

Most years, the Longhorns’ regular season would have ended the moment that Justin Tucker’s 40-yard kick split the uprights.

And that would have been a perfect conclusion to an anything-but-perfect season. But not this year.

The elimination of the Big 12 Championship Game has resulted in a re-scheduled contest at Baylor this weekend. Thankfully, Texas had a few extra days to get past the excitement of their victory and focus on how exactly to stop Robert Griffin III on his home field.

Because, you know…nobody else has come close.

This also happens to be a spotlight game for RGIII, as he is the only legitimate Heisman candidate playing on Saturday. Meaning his is the only chance to leave a final impression with voters.  It will also likely be the final home game of his college career. And his teammates know it. So I’m guessing they will all be fairly motivated.

What about Texas? What’s the motivation for these players? The defense must be excited about taking on the challenge presented by one of the top offenses in the country, but as a team, this game really only represents the difference between an Insight Bowl against Iowa or a Holiday Bowl against California.

Meh.

Don’t get me wrong. Any true competitor has the desire to win every game put in front of them. Hell, I was excited to win a co-ed, adult recreational soccer game last weekend between the two last place teams. Woo hoo, we’re only second-to-last now!

But it still feels like the real season ended last Thursday night on Kyle Field. That and Mike Sherman’s coaching career.

Bottom line: Saturday afternoon’s game means too much to Baylor. And they are at home. And last time I checked, Texas is starting Case McCoy at quarterback.

Oh well, at least San Diego is nice in December.

The Pick: Baylor (-2.5)

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7 p.m.  Oklahoma at Oklahoma State

You are looking live at Boone Pickens Stadium, where tonight the Big 12 championship is on the line. Get your shot glasses ready folks, cause I’m in rare form. Where’s the Major?

That was my Brent Musburger impression. Trust me, it works better in person.

It must have been a long two weeks for Oklahoma State since they blew their national title hopes in Ames, Iowa, of all places. And it may be a very long time before the Cowboy program gets that close again.

Don’t think for a second that just because I’m a Big 12 homer I’ll make an argument the Cowboys should get into the BCS title game over Alabama. As much as I can’t stand the idea of a rematch of the 9-6 “Snooza in Tuscaloosa”, Alabama is the second best team in the country.

You can’t lose as a four-touchdown favorite to a barely bowl-eligible Iowa State and still expect to make the title game. They had no leeway. Oklahoma State played Arizona, Louisiana-Lafayette and Tulsa in their non-conference games. Again, no leeway.

Still, Mike Gundy’s bunch can still win their first Big 12 title by defeating the Sooners in Stillwater. And a trip to the Fiesta Bowl, possibly to play Andrew Luck and Stanford, isn’t a bad consolation. I think they do it in impressive fashion. Oklahoma has been overrated all year, especially on defense.

The Pick: Oklahoma State (-3.5)

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11:30 a.m.  Iowa State at Kansas State

If Oklahoma pulls off an upset Saturday night, Kansas State may actually end up as co-champions of the Big 12 this year. How crazy is that?

Bill Snyder is coach of the year in this conference, and I won’t entertain any arguments to the contrary. There is a reason he’s coaching in the stadium that bears his name.

Iowa State, meanwhile, has a chance to secure its first regular season winning record since 2005. Any school that doesn’t interview Paul Rhoads for an open head coaching position is crazy. I’m looking at you, Aggies.

Since taking over a program that lost its last 10 games in 2008, all he’s done is win in Lubbock, Lincoln and Austin; then top that off by beating #2 Oklahoma State with a freshman quarterback.

Just that.

The Pick: Iowa State (+10.5)

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Last Week Against the Spread: 3-1

This Season: 40-27

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Who needs tradition when you can have your own network or join the SEC and get your butt kicked for the next 20 years?

A college football rivalry that dates back 117 years is going to end tomorrow night…or at least go on hiatus until new athletic directors are hired who haven’t been locked in a two-year pissing contest over a conference collapse that never happened and a network nobody can watch.

I’m sorry, but Thanksgiving night games in coming years against Texas Tech, or even Notre Dame, won’t quite have the same feel to it. And that’s a shame.

But the ultimate disappointment may be that the final game of the rivalry — for now — will be played by an underachieving 6-5 Texas A&M team that was supposed to compete for a Big 12 title and a 6-4 Texas squad that’s wrapping up what might be their worst two-year run since 1988-89.

This will be a game about pride, because that’s really the only thing on the line tomorrow night. Pride and maybe an Meineke Car Care Bowl appearance. Hooray.

The Longhorns are preparing for A&M with a huge question mark at quarterback. But then, maybe that’s an insult to question marks.

Incredibly, a program that has experienced unprecedented success over the last decade finds itself with only two scholarship quarterbacks on the roster, neither of whom could be classified as even average college quarterbacks.

So how did Texas get here? Unfortunately, it was all about Garrett Gilbert. Garrett seems like a great kid, and I hope he has a lot of success at SMU. He deserves it. But his time here at Texas, to be kind, did not work out as planned.

From a recruiting standpoint, the coaching staff went all in with Gilbert. They were certain he would be the All-American quarterback that we had seen with Vince Young and Colt McCoy before him. And they weren’t alone. Gilbert was considered by most to be one of the top two high school quarterbacks in the country his senior year along with Matt Barkley. He was named the Gatorade National Player of the Year.

But it didn’t work out. Sometimes that happens. Unfortunately, Mack Brown didn’t have a backup plan.

In 2008, the Horns did not sign a quarterback. Colt McCoy was heading into his junior season and all eyes were on Gilbert for the following year. In fact, he committed at the end of his junior season.

In 2009, Gilbert signed. The Heavens opened up. Angels sang. Grown men who follow high school recruiting way too seriously acted like we won another national title. You know the drill. Or, at least, I did.

With Gilbert set to take over as starter entering his sophomore year, you can imagine the difficulty of recruiting top-level quarterbacks in 2010. Case McCoy and Connor Wood were brought in to back up Gilbert for two years and maybe compete for playing time around 2013.

And of course, in 2011, David Ash signed. Word is that he committed to Texas with the understanding that he would red-shirt his freshman year. He asked for this. Why? Because even he knew he wasn’t ready to play this year.

If you aren’t sure of the value of red-shirting, take a look at a few Texas quarterbacks who did just that. Major Applewhite. Vince Young. Colt McCoy.

Who didn’t? Chris Simms. Garrett Gilbert. Case McCoy.

But after Wood transferred and Gilbert…um…didn’t work out again, it was left to McCoy and Ash. Ready or not.

And that’s on the coaches. Not the players.

Take a look at the quarterback statistics comparing 2010 and 2011 to the previous two seasons.

Enjoy your holiday, folks!

This would all be a little easier to take if there were some light at the end of the tunnel. But looking to 2012, we can only hope that either Ash or McCoy develops into a “passable” quarterback. It’s either that or we will rely on another true freshman next season.

But let’s not go there quite yet. I can’t stomach it.

If there were ever a chance for the Texas quarterbacks to have success, you would think it might be against the Aggies. Texas A&M ranks #118 out of 120 nationally in pass defense, giving up nearly 300 yards a game. That’s awful.

At the same time, they rank #1 in sacks. And that makes me more nervous than anything about tomorrow night. How will Ash or McCoy stand up to the pressure?

Lost in argument about how to fix a severely broken Longhorns offense is just how good the defense is playing. Emmanuel Acho is playing out of his mind at linebacker. Jackson Jeffcoat and Alex Okafor are finally living up to their pre-season hype and stockpiling sacks.

Texas is leading the Big 12 in total defense, scoring defense, pass efficiency defense and rushing defense.

Manny Diaz is earning his paycheck. And the Aggies may be without their top two running backs tomorrow. After being down to their fourth-string guy in a loss at Missouri, don’t look for any sympathy from Texas.

I think this game is close. I think if Texas defense forces a few turnovers and the offense runs the ball with success, there’s hope. And hope is important. Ask Andy Dufresne.

The problem is there are not a lot of legitimate reasons to believe Texas can pull an upset here. But if this is the last game between the schools — for now — I’m sure as hell not picking the Aggies.  Texas wins, followed by Reveille limping off to the SEC, tail between her legs, never to be heard from again.

The Pick: Texas (+8).

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Around the Big 12: Week 13

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Saturday, November 26th

11 a.m.  Iowa State at Oklahoma

Here we have two teams on opposite trajectories. Iowa State is coming off what may be their biggest win in school history, and Oklahoma just found out why Robert Griffin III should not have been recruited as a safety by Texas. No bitterness there. None. Still, Oklahoma still has a chance to win the conference title by winning this week at home and next week at Stillwater. Even without Whaley and Broyles, their offense is still explosive, but their defense just gave up 600 yards to Baylor. I like the Cyclones’ chances of keeping within four touchdowns. I also believe that if they stay within a touchdown, Paul Rhoads should be allowed to give another “I’m so proud to be your coach” speech in the locker room. This needs to happen more than once a season. The Pick: Iowa State (+28).

2:30 p.m.  Missouri vs. Kansas

Missouri tries to close their season out with a three-game winning streak an enhance their bowl status, while Kansas attempts to become the first win-less Big 12 team since Iowa State in 2008. It’s nice to have goals. The Pick: Missouri (-23.5).

6 p.m.  Texas Tech at Baylor

RGIII has two games left to impress Heisman voters, and lucky for him, Texas Tech goes out of their way to make opposing teams look good. The Red Raiders give up 36 points a game, putting them at 111th in the country. Baylor averages more than 48 points at home, where they are unbeaten and perfect against the spread. Let’s not try to over-think this one. Baylor has something special going on this season. They should drop the Red Raiders fairly easily, setting up a nice test against Texas on December 3rd. Hooray. The Pick: Baylor (-12.5).

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Last Week Against the Spread: 4-1

This Season: 37-26

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He's a man. He's 44. And he can smell a BCS Title shot.

Don’t believe anyone who tells you the Big 12 Championship game no longer exists.

It is scheduled for December 3rd at 7 p.m., broadcast nationally on ABC. But this one won’t be played at Dallas Cowboys Stadium or Arrowhead. It will happen in Stillwater, Oklahoma.

An upset loss to Baylor not withstanding, the Oklahoma Sooners will go on the road to play for the Big 12 title against Oklahoma State.

But for the Cowboys, something bigger will likely be on the line. Bedlam will serve as a “play in” game to the BCS Championship.

While Alabama and Oregon are waiting for the building pressure to implode over the next two weeks, Oklahoma State just keeps winning. And that’s all they have to do for two more weeks. Just win, baby. No style points are needed, although Brandon Weeden, Justin Blackmon and Joseph Randle are more than capable of doing just that.

The naysayers will point to another Big 12 offensive juggernaut that had the nation buzzing in 2008 after winning their first 10 games of the season. Graham Harrell and Michael Crabtree were setting records in Lubbock and climbed to #2 in the BCS before getting destroyed by Oklahoma 65-21 in Norman.

So is this Cowboy team a real contender or just a gimmicky offense waiting to be exposed?

First, let me say that I think Oklahoma State will beat OU and play for the national title against LSU. They’ll have a home crowd advantage (the likes never before seen in that town), and Oklahoma has lost their best running back and wide receiver for the season.

But can they beat LSU?

Short answer: I don’t think so.

I base this on their game in Austin a few weeks ago. Sure, they won by 12. But Texas held Weeden to 218 yards, one touchdown and about a 50% completion rate. The Longhorns lost because of three turnovers, a kickoff return TD and two blown plays that resulted long touchdowns for backup running back Jeremy Smith.

But they clearly showed the blueprints for how to slow down a passing game that averages 400 yards and more than three touchdowns per game. LSU’s defense is better than Texas’. Much better.

And while we may be getting ahead of ourselves, the Cowboys had better not. Tonight’s game in Ames presents the perfect opportunity for a trap game. Not that I think they will lose to the Cyclones, but most teams struggle in unlikely games leading up to a national championship appearance.

Tonight is Iowa State’s final home game and Senior Night. They are one game away from bowl eligibility. They’ve won two games in a row since changing their starting quarterback. They’ve had two weeks to prepare for the Cowboys. They are a four touchdown underdog at home on a Friday night.

So naturally, I’m picking the Cowboys to cover.

The Pick: Oklahoma State (-27)

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Around the Big 12: Week 12

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Saturday, Nov. 19th

11 a.m.  Kansas at Texas A&M

I’m not sure it could get much worse for the Aggies than the way they lost last week at Kansas State. After blowing another double digit lead and dropping their third straight game, Texas A&M is 5-5 and still in search of bowl eligibility. Lucky for them, the Jayhawks show up tomorrow morning at Kyle Field, fresh off blowing a 21-point lead in the fourth quarter to Baylor (only to lose in overtime on a failed two-point conversion). I can’t imagine Kansas has much fight left in them after gutting it out the last two weeks in narrow losses. I see a blowout here.  The Pick: Aggies (-31)

2:30 p.m.  Texas Tech at Missouri

Well, I guess Gary Pinkel really wanted to celebrate his first victory over Texas. And now the Tigers will be playing without him against the pitiful Red Raiders. The most fascinating story of this college football season has to be Texas Tech’s complete nose dive following their miraculous win at Oklahoma. Can you imagine the look on Bob Stoops’ face every Saturday night when he sees the Big 12 scores? 41-7. 52-20. 66-6. Three losses by a combined 126 points. And that’s the team that may keep Oklahoma out of the national championship. Wow. Still, I think without their coach and the Big 12’s leading rusher, Missouri lets down a bit here. I’ll probably regret this, but… The Pick: Texas Tech (+18).

7 p.m.  Oklahoma at Baylor

This will tell you all you need to know about Baylor’s season to this point. They are 5-0 against the spread at home. They are 0-4 against the spread on the road. Robert Griffin III fell asleep in Lawrence last weekend for three quarters, but it sure is amazing what he can do in 15 minutes. If the Bears’ defense can muster up any sort of an effort against Landry Jones and a Sooner team missing its best player (Ryan Broyles), I think we may see an opportunity for an upset. I don’t think RG3 is going to sleep on the Sooners Saturday night in Waco.  The Pick: Baylor (+15.5).

7 p.m.  Kansas State at Texas

Last Saturday in Columbia, we got an answer to the question we hoped we’d never have to ask: “What would the Longhorns do if David Ash was forced to win the game?” They just looked miserable on offense without Malcolm Brown, Joe Bergeron, Jaxon Shipley and Fozzy Whitaker. Fozzy’s injury on that crappy field was awful to watch. Here’s a guy who finally puts it all together his senior year and this is the way it ends for him. Jeremy Hills was not the answer for Texas. And neither was Ash, who shouldn’t even be playing this year, but he’s the best we’ve got at this point. McCoy made that clear in his brief appearance.

I don’t know who’s playing or not playing Saturday night in Austin, but I do know who the opponent is. I’ve gone through the historical issues we’ve had with Kansas State before in this blog, so I won’t bother going through it all again. I don’t need the heartburn. But the fact that this Texas team, with all its injuries, is a 8.5 point favorite to a Wildcat team that nearly took OSU to overtime in Stillwater… well, I’m just sorry I’m not in Vegas this weekend. Actually, I feel that way most weekends. Call this the “Lock of the Century.” I’m hoping for the best, but right now I can easily see a team that started 6-2 finishing at 6-6. Here’s to some healthy freshmen this weekend. Hook ‘em! The Pick: Kansas State (+8.5).

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Last Week Against the Spread: 3-1

This Season: 33-25

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Another week. Another dominant freshman running back.

Saturday, November 12th

11 a.m.  Texas at Missouri

Leaving the Cotton Bowl one month ago, I wasn’t sure what to make of the Longhorns. They had just been destroyed by a much better Oklahoma team in their first legitimate test of the season.

Maybe we had been fooled by four early games against significantly inferior opponents. Maybe this 2011 team wouldn’t turn out much better than their 2010 counterparts.  And, oh yeah…Who the hell was going to be the quarterback?

But over the course of three games following that miserable Saturday in Dallas, we’ve seen something that never happened last year – an identity has been formed.

Texas is a running team. And a damned good one.

It makes all the sense in the world. The lack of experience at quarterback and wide receiver, combined with the superb talent and depth of the running backs, this is clearly the best approach. But the main reason it has worked has been the development of the offensive line – a unit that (fairly) took its share of criticism last year.

But against Oklahoma State, Kansas and Texas Tech, that group has lead the Horns to average 370 yards rushing and score 13 touchdowns on the ground.  That’s only six less than the team scored all of last season.

Malcolm Brown has been everything we hoped he would. Joe Bergeron has been an incredible surprise.  With Brown out last week, he stepped in and played like he’d been the starter all year.

Fozzy Whitaker has mastered the “wild horn” offense and become one of the most dangerous kick returners in the Big 12. Cody Johnson has transformed from a short-yardage running back into a legitimate NFL fullback prospect. And all D.J. Monroe does is average eight yards a carry and make fans wonder why he can’t get the ball more.

Did I mention we have the #1 high school running back in the country coming in next year?

Missouri, like Texas, is young and talented. They are the only team in the conference who can run the ball nearly as well as the Longhorns. They have the only legitimate duel-threat quarterback that Texas has faced this season.

But the difference is defense. Last week, Missouri gave up nearly 700 yards to Baylor. The week before they gave up 500 to Texas A&M. The week before that: 533 to Oklahoma State.

Now that Texas is bowl eligible, every game represents an opportunity to get a better invitation. I think their options will look better after Saturday.

The Pick: Texas (-1.5)

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11 a.m.  Oklahoma State at Texas Tech

The media has spent the last week trying to convince us that the 9-6 snooze-fest we saw Saturday night between Alabama and LSU was how football should be played.

Sorry, but I enjoyed the hell out of the OSU-Kansas State shootout. Maybe I’m not “old school.” Oh well.

I don’t think the Cowboys are necessarily better than either of those teams, but they sure are fun to watch. And whether the SEC honks like it or not, OSU is three wins away from playing in the national title game.

Sure, they almost blew it by allowing Kansas State’s Collin Klein beat them on his own. But all they have to do is win.

I don’t see Texas Tech getting in their way. The Red Raiders have shown that the team that played in Norman a few weeks ago was the exception, not the rule.

Cowboys roll.

The Pick: Oklahoma State (-18)

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1 p.m.  Baylor at Kansas

Last Saturday night showed the best and worst of Baylor in 2011. Robert Griffin led an offense that was unstoppable. I don’t know many college teams capable of putting up 400 yards passing and 300 yards rushing in the same game.

But after twice leading by 17 points in the fourth quarter, they barely held on to beat Missouri by a field goal.

Kansas recovered, somewhat, from their embarrassing effort in Austin two weeks ago to give Iowa State a tough game in Ames. I think Baylor will continue to put up incredible numbers, but I think they will give up some as well. The Bears win easily, but I don’t trust them to cover three touchdowns. Even Kansas.

The Pick: Kansas (+20.5)

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2:30 p.m.  Texas A&M at Kansas State

Who would have figured that headed into the second weekend of November, Texas would be ranked and bowl-eligible, but the Aggies would not? Now Texas A&M has lost their leading rusher for the year, and they are playing a Kansas State team that nearly upset #2 Oklahoma State on the road last week.

Somehow the Aggies are heavy favorites in this game. I think that’s nuts. Kansas State is legit, despite their blowout loss to Oklahoma (sound familiar?). I’m going with the home dog in an upset. Kansas State makes A&M sweat another week about qualifying for a bowl. Purple Power!

The Pick: Kansas State (+5.5)

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Last Week Against the Spread: 2-3

This Season: 32-27

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Remember when bowl eligibility wasn't a big deal around Austin? Times they are a changing.

You wouldn’t know it by watching ESPN, but there are other games this weekend outside of Tuscaloosa, Alabama. A few of them at least.

From top to bottom, Week 10 promises to be the one of the most interesting Saturdays for the Big 12 this season.

There are teams trying to bounce back from big home losses (Texas Tech and Kansas State); teams trying to regain some confidence in a season suddenly gone wrong (A&M and Baylor); teams trying to exceed expectations despite their inexperience (Missouri and Texas); teams trying to stay on track to the BCS and a conference title showdown (Oklahoma and Oklahoma State); and a team with a new quarterback coming off yet another huge road upset (Iowa State).

And then there’s Kansas, the kind of team that makes you wish this conference had relegation like European soccer.

With all that excitement, I’m pulling an old-school preview of each game as we go Around the Big 12.

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Saturday, November 5th

11 a.m.  Texas Tech at Texas

Much like the rest of the country, I don’t know what to make of the Red Raiders after the last two weeks. How could the same team that dominated Oklahoma on the road get absolutely creamed in Lubbock by Iowa State – a team that had lost four games in a row by an average of 24 points?  I’ll tell you how. They aren’t very good. Kind of like the Longhorns last year, who incredibly pulled off a win in Lincoln over #5 Nebraska, only to fall the next week at home to…Iowa State.

Although the win over OU was huge, the reality is that it was the only game Texas Tech has won in their last four. And all three losses have come at home. They’ve actually played much better on the road this season (3-0), although they did have to come back to beat the craptacular Jayhawks.

These two offenses couldn’t be any more different. Tech, as usual, ranks among the national leaders in passing. Texas, in contrast to recent years, possesses one of the more dominant running games in college football.  But as LSU and Alabama will tell you, defense wins you football games.  Texas is ranked #13 in NCAA total defense. Tech is #102. Texas ranks #4 in third down defense. Tech is #86. Texas’ passing defense is #21 (after facing two of the top four passing teams in the country). Texas Tech is ranked 114th stopping the run.

Advantage: Texas.

Don’t think for a second that the Longhorns will overlook Tech. This game represents their chance to become bowl eligible. And while that may not have meant much for the first 12 years of Mack’s tenure in Austin, it sure as hell does now.

The only thing that might keep this game close is turnovers. Texas is young and gives the ball away too often to count on a blowout. I say Texas wins, but a 14-point spread is too much to expect at this point.

The Pick: Texas Tech (+14)

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11:30 a.m.  Kansas at Iowa State

Will someone please tell Turner Gill that his Jayhawks will not get to draft Andrew Luck by losing all their remaining games? I can’t think of another explanation for that dog turd performance last week in Austin. Forty-six yards of offense? That’s not even an impressive drive, much less an entire game.

Meanwhile, the Cyclones are finally showing signs of life under new quarterback Jared Barnett. He’s a run-pass threat, unlike that fraud Steele Jantz. The game couldn’t come at a worse time for the Jayhawks. Iowa State ran for 368 yards Saturday at Texas Tech. Kansas gave up 441 rushing yards to Texas the same night. I think we see another blowout.

The Pick: Iowa State (-14)

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2:30 p.m.  Texas A&M at Oklahoma

The Aggies farewell tour of the Big 12 isn’t going as planned. Not even close. After blowing another double-digit halftime lead at home against Missouri last week, Texas A&M sits unranked at 5-3, with road games against Oklahoma and Kansas State up next.

Oklahoma looked to regain its stride in a spiteful 58-17 win at Kansas State on Saturday. I’m sure they will be anxious to take out some revenge on the Aggies tomorrow after falling 33-19 a year ago in College Station.

Recent history tell us that Reveille does not enjoy her trips to Norman. The last two have resulted in 65-10 and 42-14 blowouts. I still think the Aggies are a good team, but if they can’t stop Missouri on defense, what chance do they have against Landry Jones and company?

The Pick: Oklahoma (-14)

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6 p.m.  Missouri at Baylor

This may be the best game of the day, or at least the closest. The Bears have to be thrilled to play in Waco again after back-to-back road bombs at Texas A&M and Oklahoma State. I think they only played at home once during the Kardashian marriage.

Missouri is a young team that is improving every game. How many of you realize that sophomore Henry Josey is leading the Big 12 in rushing?  He’s fourth in the country with more than 1,000 yard in the first eight games. Quarterback James Franklin’s confidence has to be pretty high after last week’s comeback.

I want to pick Baylor here, but I can’t trust a defense that’s giving up 37 points a game. I’m rooting for the Bears, but going with a small upset.

The Pick: Missouri (+2.5)

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7 p.m.  Kansas State at Oklahoma State

Everyone in the media who kept saying Kansas State was a fraud as an undefeated, top 10 team was able to do a little happy dance on Saturday. Yes, they got destroyed by Oklahoma. So have a lot of teams.

The Cowboys, on the other hand, showed no chinks in their armor by running out to a 42-0 lead on a Baylor team that many thought would create a shoot-out. They were half right, I guess.

Kansas State is not as bad as they showed last week. But they also aren’t quite as good as they thought they were before that. I think the Wildcats can run on the Cowboys, and as long as they don’t turn it over, they’ll keep it within three touchdowns.

The Pick: Kansas State (+21)

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Last Week Against the Spread: 2-3

This Season: 30-24

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