Holland Crew Football

Rice is an excellent university. No doubt. But unfortunately for the Owls, tomorrow is a football game, not a math exam.

The college football season doesn’t officially begin until an overrated team from the Big East gets upset. So thanks to Pitt, we are underway! Last night gave us some early insight into 2010.

My Ohio State/Terrell Pryor predictions from earlier this week don’t look terrible. Lane Kiffin called for a trick two-point conversion after the first USC touchdown of the season against Hawaii - yep, he’s still a prick. Oh yeah, it failed. Steve Spurrier is still the same old ball coach (as long as he’s not playing SEC teams). And Iowa State didn’t immediately embarrass the Big 12. Neato!

The Longhorns should absolutely destroy Rice tomorrow, but that’s not the point. I’m excited for a number of reasons. It’s Garrett Gilbert’s first game starting for the Horns. How will the new running game look? (Hint: it always looks good against Rice. The real question is how will it look in Dallas and Lincoln? Or even Lubbock?) Will the defense give up any points? Heck…any yards?

This isn’t the Rice team that came into Austin two years ago with Chase Clement, Jarrett Dillard and James Casey – a team that went 10-3 and won the Texas Bowl. That team was legit. And we still beat them 52-10. This year’s Owls return 18 starters from 2009, which is usually a good thing…but not in this case. Those 18 starters suffered through a 2-10 season that began with nine straight losses and ended with a 73-14 public flogging by Houston.

I don’t care if this game is over before it starts. I’m just excited to see the boys play again. I’m still trying to get the nasty taste of the BCS Championship Game out of my mouth. Rice will do just fine.

The Pick: Texas (-31) over Rice

As for the rest of the conference, this weekend’s schedule is full of cakewalks. The only single digit spread is UCLA at Kansas State. As I mentioned last season, the first weekend of games are a crapshoot to pick, but I’ll give it my best shot. Just don’t expect me to pretend I know very much about any of these teams yet. And please remember kids, my gambling picks are for entertainment purposes only. Unless you use them and win. Then you owe me a cut. (Picks in bold)

Saturday, Sept. 4

11:30 a.m.  Illinois vs. Missouri (-12)

1 p.m.  Colorado vs. Colorado State (+12)

2:30 p.m.  UCLA at Kansas State (-1.5)

6 p.m.  Western Kentucky (+39) at Nebraska

6 p.m.  Washington State at Oklahoma State (-17)

6 p.m.  Utah State at Oklahoma (-32.5)

Sunday, Sept. 5

2:30 p.m.  SMU at Texas Tech (-13.5)

And now for the games that even Vegas wants no part of…

Saturday, Sept. 4

6 p.m.  Sam Houston at Baylor (No Line Available).  The pick: Bears 42 Bearkats 10

6 p.m.  Stephen F. Austin at Texas A&M (No Line). The pick: Aggies 55 Lumberjacks 16

6 p.m.  North Dakota State at Kansas (No Line). The pick: Jayhawks 41 Ice Princesses 9

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Luckily both of these guys found new jobs. So they don't have to gameplan for Terrell Pryor Thursday night.

The 2010 college football season starts in two days, people. Two flippin’ days. Four ranked teams hit the field Thursday night, including USC (Curse you Reggie Bush!), Miami, and Ohio State. The Buckeyes take their first step on the road to a possible title by facing Marshall, the team Matthew McConaughey and Jack from “Lost” used to coach.

The beginning of any season means you don’t have to look far to find columnists and bloggers churning out meaningless predictions that will ultimately make them look like idiots by January…if not Week 2. Well, far be it from me to disassociate myself with those losers. Except that everything I mention below will actually happen. So without further ado, I present my “bold” predictions for the college football season.

Let’s start with Texas:

• Garrett Gilbert will only merit Honorable Mention All-Big 12 Honors after throwing for 3,000 yards and 23 touchdowns. I will cry foul and demand an immediate re-vote by the coaches. No one will take me seriously…except maybe my son, who will be sporting his Gilbert jersey for the first time Saturday at Reliant.
• Despite being named starter in game one, Cody Johnson will not end the season as the leading rusher for Texas. He will, however, lead the team in touchdowns with 13 and Jerome Bettis jokes with 105.
• Mike Davis will be the most exciting freshman receiver at UT since Roy Williams. He will be a full-time starter by Week 5. (Remember this when you are wondering “Who’s the receiver wearing the #1 jersey?” on Saturday.)
• Texas will shut out at least one opponent and lead the Big 12 in scoring defense. Will Muschamp will do that jumping chest bump thing with Sam Acho more than any of us are comfortable with.
• D.J. Monroe will return three kickoffs for touchdowns and not get arrested even once.
• The Longhorns will lose in Lincoln, but beat Nebraska in the rematch at the Big 12 Championship, finishing the season 12-1 and playing in the Fiesta Bowl. I will celebrate by purchasing copious amounts of Tostitos products.

We sure will miss you after this season, Bo. Nobody refuses to be asked legitimate questions by the media quite like you.

Around the Big 12:

• Texas A&M will lose back-to-back games to Arkansas and Oklahoma State, but bounce back to upset Oklahoma and Nebraska in College Station. Yeah, they’ll be that team.
• Robert Griffin will lead Baylor to a 7-1 start, looking like a Heisman contender before hitting a tough late stretch versus Texas, A&M and OU. When those games are over, he’ll look like an Alamo Bowl MVP contender.
• Texas Tech will finish 5^th in the Big 12 South, leading Red Raider nation to long for the days of pirate-themed offices and fat little girlfriends.
• Other than Nebraska (and maybe Missouri), the North division will flat out suck. But I’m sure Kansas State will find a way to scare the crap out of Texas. That seems to be a given. Speaking of which…
• I’m calling my shot. Easiest gambling cover of the year – Kansas State as an underdog at home to UT on November 6^th. If I didn’t have tickets to Weird Al Yankovic that weekend, I’d book a flight to Vegas. Don’t judge.
• Jerrod Johnson will put up HUGE numbers for Texas A&M, but it won’t be enough to get them beyond the Holiday Bowl. That’s your ceiling, Aggies. Live with it.
• Curmudgeon Bo Pelini, tired of questions about who will start at quarterback for Nebraska, will play 10 offensive linemen and a running back against Western Kentucky.

Around the Country:

• Boise State and Ohio State will play for the national championship, with Ohio State winning. Sweater vest popularity hits an all-time high. Blue fields forced to wait another year.
• Heisman Finalists: Case Keenum (UH), Terrell Pryor (OSU), Kellen Moore (Boise St.), and my super dark horse candidate…Trent Richardson (Alabama). Pryor wins. Mark Ingram wonders if it’s too late to declare for last April’s draft.
• TCU fans will be up in arms when their undefeated Horned Frogs are left out of the national championship game after withstanding such road tests as SMU, Colorado State, and New Mexico. Utah might be a test, right?
• Jenga and Hungry, Hungry Hippos become the best selling toys in Alabama’s history.
• Mike Leach will be fired by CBS Sports after attempting to lock a production assistant in an electrical closet because she called in sick to work.
• LSU will be punished by the NCAA for trying to sneak an unemployed JaMarcus Russell onto the field against Alabama. Officials will become suspicious when they realize the quarterback weighs more than any LSU offensive lineman and insists on bringing his own “water” bottle on the field to help him with a bad cough.

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There is a good rule to follow when making a college football futures bet (or really any other kind of bet) in Las Vegas: Never make the wager after a day of drinking.

I failed miserably in that capacity during a visit this past March.

The result? Waking up the next morning to find a $60 bet slip in my pocket on the USC Trojans to win the 2011 BCS National Championship. I half expected to find a tiger in the restroom and a baby in the closet. No such luck.

As best I can recall, about 12 hours earlier a ”Vegas Fog” had rolled in… and suddenly I was convinced that Matt Barkley would be the next great Trojan quarterback. That the Pac 10 was down this year and USC’s pansy schedule was now even easier since Oregon lost Jeremiah Masoli. That Lane Kiffin nearly beat Florida and Alabama last year with much less talent. And the payoff would be $720? “Hell yeah, I’ll take those odds!”

Oops.

My lapse in judgment is now magnified by the fact that USC is ineligible for postseason play. So, zero games into the season I have already lost. The gambling gods mock me. Thanks, Reggie.

Five months later, the season is upon us, the fog has lifted, and I can tell you without hesitation or influence of alcohol that there are really only five teams that can win the BCS title this season. That’s right, five.

So mark it down. Set it in stone. Tattoo it on your sister’s lower back. One of these teams will be holding the crystal trophy on January 10, 2011. And I’m pretty sure they are all still NCAA-eligible. Drum roll please…and you’re welcome:

Alabama Crimson Tide  

Vegas Odds: 9-2

Why they can win it all: They are the defending champs. Alabama won the title last year for a couple of reasons. First, Colt McCoy got injured. Enough said. Second, they relied on a strong running game with a smart Texas quarterback and a game changing receiver who could do just enough to keep defenses honest. And third, their defense was as good as any in the country. In 2010, they return all key players on offense. They may have the top two running backs in the country. And despite some losses, when was the last time a Nick Saban team was weak on defense? They are also one of the few teams in college football that could lose early and still make it back to title game.

Standing in their way: They are the defending champs. Back-to-back titles just don’t happen any more. You need a little luck to go your way. You need to stay healthy. Sometimes you need multiple blocked kicks by a 400 pound lineman to beat Tennessee at home. Even though the SEC isn’t quite as loaded as previous years, it’s still the freaking SEC. Consecutive road games at Tennessee and LSU could pose problems. Replacing nine starters on defense will be a test even for Saban.

Ohio State Buckeyes

Vegas Odds: 5-1

Why they can win it all: Fair or not, Terrelle Pryor has long been compared to Vince Young. Like Young, his breakout game happened at the end of his sophomore year by winning the Rose Bowl. And we all remember what happened when Vince was a junior at Texas. A quarterback with the unique talents of Pryor can carry a team to a national title. And it’s not like he’s on his own. OSU returns 17 starters, including four offensive linemen. Incredibly, the Buckeyes play eight home games this season. And the lack of a Big 10 Championship Game increases the odds of going undefeated. If Pryor can pick up where left off on in Pasadena, look for Ohio State to play in Arizona in January.

Standing in their way: While OSU’s schedule sets up quite nicely, they will be tested at home by the University of Miami early and later on the road at Iowa and Wisconsin. They will not have the luxury of losing a game if they want to play for the national championship. Pryor must remain consistent all year, which he hasn’t done to this point in his career.

Florida Gators

Vegas Odds: 8-1

Why they can win it all: Talent. Florida has lots and lots of talent. It may be hard to imagine how a team that just lost Tim Tebow could come back the next year to win the national championship. But let me ask you this. Who was the last SEC quarterback to have the popularity of Tebow? The last to be the face of college football? Peyton Manning. Do you remember what happened the year after he left Tennessee? All the lofty expectations were gone, and they won a title with Tee Martin under center. Enter new Gator quarterback John Brantley. The former Texas commit has all the tools to take this team far. In a year where there might not be a dominant team in college football, I’ll take talent like theirs any day.

Standing in their way: Florida will likely have to play Alabama twice this season. They travel to Tuscaloosa on October 2, and then could have a rematch in the SEC Championship. A loss at Bama would hurt, but it’s early enough in the season to give them time to climb back into the picture. But there always seems to be a surprise along the way in the SEC. Even in their 2008 championship season, the Gators fell to Mississippi at home.

Boise State Broncos

Vegas Odds: 10-1

Why they can win it all: Boise State is no longer just the team that plays on a blue field and comes up with crazy trick plays. They are a legitimate title contender. Last season, the Broncos went undefeated and won the Fiesta Bowl. They return nearly everyone off that impressive squad, including Heisman Trophy candidate Kellen Moore at quarterback. Moore is the talented lefty who will shatter Colt McCoy’s NCAA all-time wins record if he stays for four years and avoids injury.  And don’t forget about their defense, which loses only one starter after shutting down both Oregon and TCU last season. This team is salty!

Standing in their way: Virginia Tech. Barring an unforeseen upset during the season, the Broncos’ first game of the year will be their only real test. Sure, Oregon State won’t be a pushover, but that game is in Boise. Virginia Tech will be have a home-like advantage even though their September 6 match-up in on “neutral” Fed Ex field, the Washington Redskins’ field. If Boise State wins, I say they the only way they don’t play for the title is if we have two undefeated champs from the SEC, Big 10 or Big 12. Imagine going undefeated for two years and not getting a shot at the trophy. Playoffs anyone?

Texas Longhorns

Vegas Odds: 12-1

Why they can win it all: One word – defense. Will Muschamp has spent the last two seasons turning down head coaching jobs and turning out killer defenses. Mack Brown believes that this may be his best defense ever at Texas. He’s not exaggerating. Sam Acho, Emmanuel Acho, Keenan Robinson, Curtis Brown, Aaron Williams, Blake Gideon. Those are some studs. I’m beginning to get concerned about my tone here, so let’s move on. The offense is far less experienced, but don’t think the talent isn’t there to be special. Garrett Gilbert, who has yet to start a game at UT, is still one of only two quarterbacks in college football to have experience playing in a national championship game. He may end up being one of the best quarterbacks we’ve seen at Texas. And the receiving unit is deeper than JWoww’s voice. Face it, this is a down year across the Big 12. Texas has a more than decent chance to go undefeated, repeat as conference champions and head back to the big game.

Standing in their way: Two games should define the season for Texas - Oklahoma (as usual) and Nebraska. I really believe both Texas and OU are capable of running through the Big 12 undefeated, but I think Texas is more likely. Still, after everything that’s happened since last December’s game in Dallas, beating Nebraska in Lincoln will be a doozy for the Longhorns. This is the Cornhuskers’ Jihad. It’s their final stand in the Big 12. Bo Pelini and Tom Osborne might go on a shooting spree if Texas wins. And unless they meet again in the conference championship game, it will be the final match-up between the schools for a long, long time. Texas will also have to find a running game. Let’s be honest. The University Co-Op isn’t selling any Tre Newton or Cody Johnson jerseys. Somebody needs to step up. Anyone. Look for both the OU and Nebraska games to be low-scoring and close. Hook ‘em.

Close, But No Crystal Cigar:

Oklahoma Sooners- The Sooners ooze talent and will be much better than last season, but if the Longhorns don’t get them, I think they will go down at Cincinnati, Missouri or A&M. And don’t sleep on Baylor in Waco. Too many road obstacles for Landry Jones and the land thieves.

TCU Horned Frogs – A lot would have to happen for TCU to make it to the BCS title game. They may go undefeated, but their strength of schedule is just awful. They may only play one or two top 25 teams all year. I think several teams with one loss  might get in before an undefeated TCU.

Virginia Tech Hokies- Be honest. If I’d asked you what college team, besides Texas, has won at least 10 games every year since 2004…would you have guessed the Hokies? Probably not. If the Hokies can get past Boise State in the opener, they could make a run. But I can’t see them beating any of the teams listed above in the final game. Just won’t happen.

Nebraska Cornhuskers - It’s never good for a team to place all their eggs in one game basket. Ask Texas A&M. The Huskers will be great again on defense, but not nearly enough firepower on offense to win all their games. Good luck in the Big 10. Or not.

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Freshmen Connor Wood and Case McCoy still have that new quarterback smell.

Garrett Gilbert needs to be covered in bubble wrap.

Immediately.

The Longhorns are a twisted knee, a tweaked ankle, maybe even a bad night on Sixth Street away from playing a true freshman at quarterback.

Sherrod Harris “retired” from football last week. You can’t blame him. He said he needs to focus on his studies so that he can graduate. That’s certainly understandable. And after working his tail off for four years, I’m sure the prospect of handing the ball off in garbage time wasn’t his ideal version of a senior year.

But that leaves the Longhorns with freshmen Connor Wood and Case McCoy battling for the backup quarterback position. Luckily, both were early enrollees in the spring, but pardon me if I don’t feel exactly comfortable with this idea.

Call me old school, but I’m of the firm opinion that freshmen should spend their first semester of college focused on two things – finding their classes and purchasing fake IDs.  Not preparing to play quarterback for the #4 team in the country.

Last season, Texas also had a true freshman backup (Gilbert). But the difference here is that he earned that right. He outplayed Harris, a junior. He was coming off back-to-back state championships and had set the all-time passing record for the State of Texas. He was the Gatorade and Parade National Player of the Year. He was USA Today’s Offensive Player of the Year.

He was pretty good – unusually good – for a freshman.

None of this is to say that Wood and McCoy couldn’t become great players at UT. But last year Wood played against private school competition in Houston and McCoy led a 3-A team in Graham, Texas.

That does not exactly make them ready to face Oklahoma in the Cotton Bowl or Nebraska in Lincoln.

Garrett Gilbert Instructions: Handle with Care. Keep out of defenders' reach. Don't even look at him funny.

The media consensus is that Wood will eventually earn the backup spot, but the coaches have yet to make that call. In the last few years, we’ve seen true freshmen thrown into some tough spots. Chris Simms at Texas A&M. Jevan Snead at Kansas State. Garrett Gilbert in the FREAKING NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP GAME.

All losses.

Why has this happened? Why is a perennial Top 5 team like Texas forced to deal with freshmen as backups?

Blame Vince Young. Blame Colt McCoy. Heck, you can even blame Garrett Gilbert.

If you were a five-star, nationally ranked quarterback coming out of high school when these guys were heading into their sophomore or junior year, and you knew you’d be relegated to the bench for two or three years, would you have picked Texas? Or would you go somewhere you could compete for playing time right away?

Most players at that level don’t want to wait around these days. Ryan Perrilloux, anyone? Wait. Bad example. He sucked.

So give props to Wood and McCoy. They knew that Gilbert would be the man for as long as he decides to stay on the 40 Acres. And they chose to come anyway. I’m sure they both planned on redshirting, but not now.

Either one of them could be a play away from taking the field this season. But (and no offense here fellas), we are all praying like crazy that it never happens.  Ever.

Is someone making sure Garrett takes vitamins? Is it too early for a flu shot?

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This is the level of excitement I'm trying to reach...without the help of banned substances. Unless it's totally necessary.

We are only a month away from the start of the 2010 college football season and less than a week from fall practice. Yet I find myself remarkably calm.

Between my obsession with VH1’s “The Flavor of Ocho” and earning my online certification in bounty hunting, summer has absolutely flown by and this season really snuck up on me.

But why aren’t I more excited? Why has it taken me this long to get my blog on?

Typically by August I’ve already stockpiled all the preseason magazines, memorized the Longhorns’ depth chart, and invested more time and energy indentifying a game day shirt than I did selecting names for my children.

It’s taken me awhile, but I may have figured it out.

You hear the term “rebuilding year” thrown around the sports landscape all the time. It’s one of those phrases that can instantly depress a fan base and put a coach in a defensive mood. 

In professional sports, it’s the equivalent of waving the white flag before the season begins. In college, it means things might be okay, but there are a lot of unknowns.

Most of the time, you hear this reference about a team. But in 2010, one can argue that the entire Big 12 Conference is rebuilding.

Think about the insane summer we just witnessed.  Nebraska decided they were fed up with losing – on and off the field – to Texas and jumped at the chance to get beat up by Ohio State. Like dorks, Colorado showed up to the Pac 10 party early to ensure they would be let in…only to find out later that their friends decided not to come after all. Now they are stuck rooming with Utah.

The Big 12 Conference was hours away from dissolving. That’s a crazy offseason. So, we have one more year of the Big 12 as we know it. Then, in 2011, we transition into Big X(II), or whatever Texas decides to call it.

Of course that’s going to grab all the headlines, but did you also happen to notice the incredible number of star conference players who…this is hard…decided to take their talents to the NFL?   

The Big 12 had nine players selected in the first round of the NFL Draft, and 30 taken overall (including 21 out of the South Division alone).

Don't take this man out of my life and expect me to be happy about it. Tuberville can suck it. Seriously.

Bradford. McCoy. Suh. Bryant. Okung. Gresham. Shipley. Kindle. Thomas.

These are names that defined the last few years of the conference.

Excuse me while I also take this opportunity to mourn the loss of Mark Mangino and Mike Leach. They provided more inspiration to this blog than the rest of the coaches combined. They will be missed. For reasons they probably don’t care to be missed…for example, awesome YouTube videos like this and this.

Okay, back to it.

Heading into 2009, the Big 12 returned 16 players who’d been named First Team All-Conference the previous season. In 2010? Just nine… including four on offense – Daniel Thomas, Bryant Ward, Nate Solder and Grant Ressel. 

Excited yet?

Still, most national preseason polls have Texas, Nebraska and Oklahoma among their top 10-15 teams. But that may say more for the state of college football this season than for these programs. Outside of Alabama, Ohio State and Boise State, it’s a roll of the dice to determine where rest of the Top 15 end up.

What was that about “rebuilding”? Maybe it’s a much larger issue than just the Big 12.

For example, take a look at the Heisman Pundit’s preseason list of favorites for the 2010 trophy. The star power just isn’t there like it has been the last few seasons. Christian Ponder. Ryan Williams. John Clay. These are considered favorites? I never thought I’d miss Tim Tebow this much!

That’s a lie. I totally did.

But therein lies the beauty of college football. By October, we’ll have all forgotten about what’s missing from this season and I’ll be banging out 1,000-word essays on why some guy I’ve barely heard of at this moment will definitely deserve Heisman consideration. I’ll compare Garrett Gilbert to Tom Brady and ponder questions like, “Are Sam and Emmanuel Acho the most talented pair of sibling athletes since Jose and Ozzie Canseco?” 

Maybe starting with a clean slate will make this season that much more interesting.  Maybe the process of discovering new talent around the conference will be invigorating for fans. Maybe I’m trying really hard to get excited about a team that will feature James Kirkendoll, Tre Newton and Barrett Mathews at key skill positions.

Either way, it’s settled. I AM READY FOR SOME FOOTBALL!!! So get prepared for another season of Holland Crew clogging up your Facebook news feed and testing the limits of your family’s internet filters.

Now…about that game day shirt.

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