Holland Crew Football

The implications of Saturday night’s game in Dallas are surprisingly familiar. As history shows us, when Texas plays in the Big 12 Championship Game, a trip to the BCS Title Game is usually on the line for one of the teams.

At least, that’s how it’s played out three of the four previous Texas appearances.

The problem is that two of those three ended in upsets. And we don’t want so see that happen this year. But those who do not learn from mistakes of the past are doomed to the Sugar Bowl…or something like that.  Let’s start by looking back at the inaugural Big 12 Championship in 1996.

“Roll Left”

Words that will forever put a smile on any Longhorn fan who was around in the mid-90s. Nebraska vs. Texas in St. Louis. Nebraska entered the game at 10-1. They were the two-time defending national champions and a win over the Longhorns would allow them to defend their title in the Sugar Bowl. Texas had won five in a row after starting the season 4-3. The Cornhuskers were three touchdown favorites. Behind the running of Priest Holmes, Texas kept the game close and even led by three with two minutes remaining. Then, this happened:

An underrated aspect of that play – tight end Derek Lewis looking up and watching himself on the Jumbotron while running downfield after the catch. You’ll notice that when he gets to about the 20 yard line, he covers the ball up with both hands because he could see the Nebraska player gaining on him and didn’t want to be stripped of the ball. So awesome.

The Meltdown

The 2001 title game was the Yin to 1996’s Yang. Texas came into the game at #3, but had just learned that Tennessee had upset #2 Florida. Mack Brown’s first path to a national title game was officially paved. The Horns matched up against Colorado, a team they had soundly beaten a few weeks earlier. But what followed was an epic meltdown that would unfortunately taint Chris Simms’ legacy at Texas. After taking an early 7-0 lead, Simms turned the ball over four times in the first half and gave Colorado a 29-10 lead before Major Applewhite came in to replace him following a finger injury. Applewhite lead the Longhorns back in heroic fashion, but just fell short, 39-37. Nebraska, who didn’t even play in the conference championship, snuck into the BCS Title game instead. That was a fun trip down memory lane, huh?

The Blowout

Finally, we come to 2005 – the biggest blowout in conference championship game history (any conference…probably any sport). It’s hard to imagine that a 70-3 game wasn’t even as close as the score indicated, but that was the case. Texas didn’t score a single point over the last  22 minutes of the game, and that took some imaginative play calling. The game, along with some scandal, ousted Gary Barnett from Colorado and pretty much coaching in general. And this was the guy we almost hired over Mack Brown? Anyhow, the title game ended with roses all over the field as Texas earned their way into the BSC Title game for the first time. They would face the best team in the history of college football, led by two Heisman winners. Trying to remember how that whole thing turned out.

2009 – #3 Texas vs. #22 Nebraska, Saturday, 7 p.m.

Texas will look to avoid adding another huge upset to the Big 12 Championship history books.

They will do so against a Nebraska squad led by the potential #1 pick in the 2010 NFL Draft, Ndamukong Suh. Suh, who joined Colt McCoy, Earl Thomas and Chris Hall on the American Football Coaches Association’s All-America team, will make plays. There is no way around it. It will be up to Greg Davis to devise a way to minimize his disruption and keep Colt off the turf at JerryWorld.

Future NFL Pro Bowler = Colt being extra nice to his linemen this week.

Nebraska is considered to have two advantages over Texas, but they aren’t by as much as you might think – defensive line and running backs. Suh and fellow tackle Jared Crick anchor the #1 scoring defense in the conference. But the Blackshirts have fewer sacks and turnovers caused than Texas. Nebraska’s running backs Roy Helu and Rex Burkhead are better known than Tre Newton and Cody Johnson, but Texas averages 16 more yards rushing per game and has scored nine more TDs on the ground this year.

It can be argued that Texas is in better shape at every other position on the field. But none more so than quarterback. Zac Lee threw for six touchdowns and four interceptions in conference play this season. He was replaced at midseason (temporarily) by a freshman. Will Muschamp will do everything in his power to put the game in Lee’s hands by stacking the line to stop the run. I don’t think Lee or his receivers can beat Texas’ cornerbacks. For all the problems they had last week against A&M, this is not Jerrod Johnson we’re dealing with here, and these certainly aren’t the Aggie receivers.

I don’t believe Nebraska will have the ability to consistently move the ball against Texas. If you recall, their only offensive scoring drive against Oklahoma was 1 yard (the result of a turnover by their defense). That’s the scenario Texas will have to avoid – turnovers. The Cornhuskers are counting on them to win.

I expect to see a pretty conservative game plan on offense for Texas. We should see a lot of quick passes and roll outs to offset the pressure up the middled by Suh and Crick. And I think Texas will be able to run the ball a little. Surprisingly, Nebraska ranks only 5th in the conference against the run, giving up nearly twice the yardage as the Longhorns.

It will take some strange circumstances for Nebraska to pull off the upset Saturday night. But weird things happen sometimes. It’s supposed to snow in Houston tomorrow. I hope that’s not a sign.

Hook ‘em!

The Line: Texas (-14)  The Prediction: Texas 35 Nebraska 13.

Last week against the spread: 3-2

2009 season: 55-36-1

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