Holland Crew Football

There is a good rule to follow when making a college football futures bet (or really any other kind of bet) in Las Vegas: Never make the wager after a day of drinking.

I failed miserably in that capacity during a visit this past March.

The result? Waking up the next morning to find a $60 bet slip in my pocket on the USC Trojans to win the 2011 BCS National Championship. I half expected to find a tiger in the restroom and a baby in the closet. No such luck.

As best I can recall, about 12 hours earlier a ”Vegas Fog” had rolled in… and suddenly I was convinced that Matt Barkley would be the next great Trojan quarterback. That the Pac 10 was down this year and USC’s pansy schedule was now even easier since Oregon lost Jeremiah Masoli. That Lane Kiffin nearly beat Florida and Alabama last year with much less talent. And the payoff would be $720? “Hell yeah, I’ll take those odds!”

Oops.

My lapse in judgment is now magnified by the fact that USC is ineligible for postseason play. So, zero games into the season I have already lost. The gambling gods mock me. Thanks, Reggie.

Five months later, the season is upon us, the fog has lifted, and I can tell you without hesitation or influence of alcohol that there are really only five teams that can win the BCS title this season. That’s right, five.

So mark it down. Set it in stone. Tattoo it on your sister’s lower back. One of these teams will be holding the crystal trophy on January 10, 2011. And I’m pretty sure they are all still NCAA-eligible. Drum roll please…and you’re welcome:

Alabama Crimson Tide  

Vegas Odds: 9-2

Why they can win it all: They are the defending champs. Alabama won the title last year for a couple of reasons. First, Colt McCoy got injured. Enough said. Second, they relied on a strong running game with a smart Texas quarterback and a game changing receiver who could do just enough to keep defenses honest. And third, their defense was as good as any in the country. In 2010, they return all key players on offense. They may have the top two running backs in the country. And despite some losses, when was the last time a Nick Saban team was weak on defense? They are also one of the few teams in college football that could lose early and still make it back to title game.

Standing in their way: They are the defending champs. Back-to-back titles just don’t happen any more. You need a little luck to go your way. You need to stay healthy. Sometimes you need multiple blocked kicks by a 400 pound lineman to beat Tennessee at home. Even though the SEC isn’t quite as loaded as previous years, it’s still the freaking SEC. Consecutive road games at Tennessee and LSU could pose problems. Replacing nine starters on defense will be a test even for Saban.

Ohio State Buckeyes

Vegas Odds: 5-1

Why they can win it all: Fair or not, Terrelle Pryor has long been compared to Vince Young. Like Young, his breakout game happened at the end of his sophomore year by winning the Rose Bowl. And we all remember what happened when Vince was a junior at Texas. A quarterback with the unique talents of Pryor can carry a team to a national title. And it’s not like he’s on his own. OSU returns 17 starters, including four offensive linemen. Incredibly, the Buckeyes play eight home games this season. And the lack of a Big 10 Championship Game increases the odds of going undefeated. If Pryor can pick up where left off on in Pasadena, look for Ohio State to play in Arizona in January.

Standing in their way: While OSU’s schedule sets up quite nicely, they will be tested at home by the University of Miami early and later on the road at Iowa and Wisconsin. They will not have the luxury of losing a game if they want to play for the national championship. Pryor must remain consistent all year, which he hasn’t done to this point in his career.

Florida Gators

Vegas Odds: 8-1

Why they can win it all: Talent. Florida has lots and lots of talent. It may be hard to imagine how a team that just lost Tim Tebow could come back the next year to win the national championship. But let me ask you this. Who was the last SEC quarterback to have the popularity of Tebow? The last to be the face of college football? Peyton Manning. Do you remember what happened the year after he left Tennessee? All the lofty expectations were gone, and they won a title with Tee Martin under center. Enter new Gator quarterback John Brantley. The former Texas commit has all the tools to take this team far. In a year where there might not be a dominant team in college football, I’ll take talent like theirs any day.

Standing in their way: Florida will likely have to play Alabama twice this season. They travel to Tuscaloosa on October 2, and then could have a rematch in the SEC Championship. A loss at Bama would hurt, but it’s early enough in the season to give them time to climb back into the picture. But there always seems to be a surprise along the way in the SEC. Even in their 2008 championship season, the Gators fell to Mississippi at home.

Boise State Broncos

Vegas Odds: 10-1

Why they can win it all: Boise State is no longer just the team that plays on a blue field and comes up with crazy trick plays. They are a legitimate title contender. Last season, the Broncos went undefeated and won the Fiesta Bowl. They return nearly everyone off that impressive squad, including Heisman Trophy candidate Kellen Moore at quarterback. Moore is the talented lefty who will shatter Colt McCoy’s NCAA all-time wins record if he stays for four years and avoids injury.  And don’t forget about their defense, which loses only one starter after shutting down both Oregon and TCU last season. This team is salty!

Standing in their way: Virginia Tech. Barring an unforeseen upset during the season, the Broncos’ first game of the year will be their only real test. Sure, Oregon State won’t be a pushover, but that game is in Boise. Virginia Tech will be have a home-like advantage even though their September 6 match-up in on “neutral” Fed Ex field, the Washington Redskins’ field. If Boise State wins, I say they the only way they don’t play for the title is if we have two undefeated champs from the SEC, Big 10 or Big 12. Imagine going undefeated for two years and not getting a shot at the trophy. Playoffs anyone?

Texas Longhorns

Vegas Odds: 12-1

Why they can win it all: One word – defense. Will Muschamp has spent the last two seasons turning down head coaching jobs and turning out killer defenses. Mack Brown believes that this may be his best defense ever at Texas. He’s not exaggerating. Sam Acho, Emmanuel Acho, Keenan Robinson, Curtis Brown, Aaron Williams, Blake Gideon. Those are some studs. I’m beginning to get concerned about my tone here, so let’s move on. The offense is far less experienced, but don’t think the talent isn’t there to be special. Garrett Gilbert, who has yet to start a game at UT, is still one of only two quarterbacks in college football to have experience playing in a national championship game. He may end up being one of the best quarterbacks we’ve seen at Texas. And the receiving unit is deeper than JWoww’s voice. Face it, this is a down year across the Big 12. Texas has a more than decent chance to go undefeated, repeat as conference champions and head back to the big game.

Standing in their way: Two games should define the season for Texas - Oklahoma (as usual) and Nebraska. I really believe both Texas and OU are capable of running through the Big 12 undefeated, but I think Texas is more likely. Still, after everything that’s happened since last December’s game in Dallas, beating Nebraska in Lincoln will be a doozy for the Longhorns. This is the Cornhuskers’ Jihad. It’s their final stand in the Big 12. Bo Pelini and Tom Osborne might go on a shooting spree if Texas wins. And unless they meet again in the conference championship game, it will be the final match-up between the schools for a long, long time. Texas will also have to find a running game. Let’s be honest. The University Co-Op isn’t selling any Tre Newton or Cody Johnson jerseys. Somebody needs to step up. Anyone. Look for both the OU and Nebraska games to be low-scoring and close. Hook ‘em.

Close, But No Crystal Cigar:

Oklahoma Sooners- The Sooners ooze talent and will be much better than last season, but if the Longhorns don’t get them, I think they will go down at Cincinnati, Missouri or A&M. And don’t sleep on Baylor in Waco. Too many road obstacles for Landry Jones and the land thieves.

TCU Horned Frogs – A lot would have to happen for TCU to make it to the BCS title game. They may go undefeated, but their strength of schedule is just awful. They may only play one or two top 25 teams all year. I think several teams with one loss  might get in before an undefeated TCU.

Virginia Tech Hokies- Be honest. If I’d asked you what college team, besides Texas, has won at least 10 games every year since 2004…would you have guessed the Hokies? Probably not. If the Hokies can get past Boise State in the opener, they could make a run. But I can’t see them beating any of the teams listed above in the final game. Just won’t happen.

Nebraska Cornhuskers - It’s never good for a team to place all their eggs in one game basket. Ask Texas A&M. The Huskers will be great again on defense, but not nearly enough firepower on offense to win all their games. Good luck in the Big 10. Or not.

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